Playing Catchup in the Drone Age

Ukraine and Russia are firing 10,000 drones per day at each other. Two-thousand miles away, some of the same unmanned systems Russia is using against Ukraine are pelting U.S. bases in the Middle East. It’s ironic that America ushered in this age of drone warfare—but is now playing catchup.

 

Beginnings
Weeks after 9/11, the CIA converted Predator drones designed for ISR into ground-attack warplanes. Retrofitted with Hellfire missiles, the repurposed Predator targeted the mastermind of the USS Cole attack—and ushered in the Drone Age.

Unmanned warplanes eviscerated al Qaeda’s leadership in the AfPak theater; disabled the convoy carrying Moammar Qaddafi; kept vigil over Osama bin Laden’s compound ahead of the SEAL Team 6 raid; and eliminated al Qaeda’s Anwar al-Awlaki.  

 

Between 2001 and 2011, the U.S. drone fleet swelled from 50 planes to 7,000, though the vast majority of those were not ground-attack drones. 

 

The U.S. military’s drone fleet today is dramatically and rapidly changing—evolving from a handful of high-tech and expensive airframes like the Predator and Reaper into a seemingly-limitless fleet of low-tech, inexpensive, attritable one-way attack drones (OWAD) like the Switchblade, LUCAS and drone-killing Merops (which has been deployed by Ukraine against Russian drones and by the U.S. against Iranian drones). 

 

There’s more to come. In 2027 alone, the U.S. will pour nearly $74 billion into drone and counter-drone systems. (The Pentagon allocated $26 billion to unmanned systems between 2001 and 2013.) Some of those resources will be used to integrate AI autonomy software into the LUCAS drone, enabling it to conduct swarming attacks. Some will be earmarked for a new “man-packable bomber drone” with an 18-mile range.

In late 2025, the Pentagon stood up its first OWAD squadron: Task Force Scorpion Strike. Two months later, that squadron was at war with Iran—launching drones that, ironically, were reverse-engineered versions of Iran’s Shahed. 

 

America’s military is brandishing its growing unmanned fleet not just to strike enemies, but also to deter enemies: PACOM commander Adm. Samuel Paparo revealed plans in 2024 to “turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape” if Beijing lunges at Taiwan. 

 

Toward that end, the Navy is planning to deploy OWADs capable of launching from any ship, regardless of deck space. 

 

The Army plans to procure 1 million drones by 2028. Some in Congress want to stand up an Army Drone Corps. 

 

The Air Force is shifting its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program—teaming heavily armed unmanned platforms with manned aircraft—into the procurement phase. 

 

Likewise, the Marine Corps is grafting a CCA platform into its F-35C fleet. The Marines also are integrating first-person view drones (FPVs)—which stream real-time video to an operator who guides the weapon onto the target—into their toolkit. 

 

Enemies
The U.S. military’s drone developments sound impressive—until we compare them to what America’s enemies are doing. 

 

While Task Force Scorpion Strike marked the first U.S. use of OWADs, Iran has been launching OWADs for more than a decade. Long before 2026, Tehran deployed OWADs to hit targets in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan (where Iranian drones killed three U.S. soldiers). This year, Iran has sprayed most of the region with OWADs—hitting 20 facilities used by the U.S. military; destroying AWACS planes, KC-135 refuelers and Apache attack helicopters; killing and wounding U.S. troops; and striking commercial ships. 

 

With Iran’s help, Russia has used OWADs throughout its war on Ukraine. Iranian-designed, Russian-built Shahed variants are responsible for three-quarters of Ukrainian casualties. Russia will produce more than 6 million drones this year and is investing in autonomous, AI-enabled drones. 

 

One analysis concludes that China is producing 12 million drones annually. Both Russia and Ukraine rely on Chinese drones.

The Russian drone threat isn’t limited to Ukraine. In 2025, Russia hurled drones at Poland—not by accident but by design: to test NATO defenses. 

 

Nor is the drone threat quarantined “over there.” In March, swarms of drones—origins unknown—circled above Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. Although the drones didn’t attack the planes, it was an attack. The drones prevented B-52s from taking off to conduct operations in Iran—an ominous signal that the drone threat is already inside our borders. Indeed, drug cartels and terrorist groups have acquired these weapons and could use them to strike inside the U.S. Recall that Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb used FPVs deployed from semi-trailer trucks inside Russia to decimate Russia’s manned bomber fleet.

Next Steps
OWADs have punctured two things Americans have long taken for granted: air superiority in the battlespace and a homeland secure from air attack. Americans must move on several fronts to reclaim the lead in the Drone Age.

 

Accelerate
The U.S. is investing in a range of directed-energy systems—even drone-mounted lasers—to defend against drones and other airborne threats.

 

Laser defenses are an essential piece of the counter-drone puzzle given the current cost-exchange ratio of air defense: Iranian-designed OWADs cost $35,000 per copy. Hezbollah converts Zelzal-2 rockets into guided missiles for just $5,000 apiece. On the defender’s side of the equation, a THAAD interceptor costs $12 million, a Patriot PAC-3 $3 million, an Arrow-3 $2.2 million. Even the relatively inexpensive Merops costs $15,000 per shot.

 

Using a $3-million interceptor to take down a $35,000 drone is worth every penny for those in the crosshairs—just ask the thousands of Americans, Israelis, Ukrainians, Emirates and Kuwaitis alive today because of missile-defense systems—but it’s a costly proposition, as is replenishing those systems: The U.S. has burned through about 50% of its Patriot and THAAD interceptors fending off Iranian attacks. 

 

Lasers will shift the cost-exchange ratio to the defender’s favor. The HELIOS laser-intercept system costs less than $10 per shot. The Pentagon is gradually integrating lasers into U.S. defenses. The Navy is adding laser-intercept systems onto eight destroyers. The Army has deployed directed-energy batteries to the Middle East. An Army-led joint taskforce is using lasers and microwave systems to protect stateside bases. 

 

Washington must accelerate the forward-deployment of these systems to defeat drones.

 

Collaborate
In the Drone Age, as before, our allies must be seen as assets, not liabilities. 

 

NATO allies, for instance, are investing $40 billion on counter-drone capabilities, and NATO militaries are increasing the number of drone operators in their ranks fivefold. 

 

Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Britain are fast-tracking co-development of an inexpensive interceptor drone.

Ukraine and NATO are collaborating on an initiative to produce next-generation drones and counter-drone systems.

Japan has launched a crash program to develop homegrown interceptor-drones.

Israel has already used lasers to intercept drones in combat.

 

To defend U.S. interests, Washington must set aside pride—and learn from the rest of the free world.

 

Setting Standards
The Drone Age isn’t the first revolution in warfare. But it may be one of the most disruptive. Gen. David Petraeus argues Ukraine has ushered in a “new concept of warfare.”

 

Indeed, the skies are filling with opposing swarms of anonymous—and increasingly, autonomous— kamikaze-drones. This doesn’t sound like a recipe for global stability—or U.S. security—which is why some of us urged policymakers early in the Drone Age to contemplate the moral, constitutional and geostrategic implications of unmanned combat. 

 

Alas, drones aren’t going to disappear from the world’s arsenals. Given that reality, the American people should expect drones to be used in ways that conform with our values; the American military should ensure that humans remain in the decision-making loop; and the American government, as it has with other weapons, should lead the free world in setting standards for use of unmanned systems.

 

Learn
Ukraine will produce more than 7 million drones this year and has trailblazed the use of interceptor-drones. In March alone, Ukraine shot down 33,000 Russian OWADs. Ukraine has used OWADs to defend the frontlines (Ukrainian drones killed or wounded 240,000 Russian soldiers in 2025) and to strike deep into Russian territory (Ukrainian drones have torched 40% of Russia’s oil-export capacity).

U.S. forces are conducting training exercises using Ukrainian-made seaborne drones. Last month, Washington and Kiev inked a deal to deliver Ukrainian drone platforms to the U.S. military. But there is much more America’s policymakers, military and industry must learn from Ukraine. Again, this is no time to succumb to pride or not-invented-here syndrome.

As Petraeus counsels, “We need to learn a lot more, much more rapidly than we