Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

With Trump Facing Virus Crisis, U.S. Warns Rivals Not to Seek Advantage

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Categories: ASCF News Emerging Threats National Preparedness

Comments: 0

While President Trump is absorbed with confronting the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic at home, administration officials and their allies are seeking to head off any attempt by adversaries around the world to test U.S. resolve.

In a succession of public warnings, Mr. Trump, his key aides, military officials and allies in recent weeks have voiced concern that attention to the health crisis by the White House and military could give rise to challenges.

“I think some of this stuff is profoundly and clearly taking advantage of a bad situation,” said an administration official, who pointed to China’s actions in the South China Sea as particularly troubling.

In recent weeks, Beijing has conducted operations to gain more of a foothold in the Spratly and Paracel island chains in the South China Sea, emblematic of China’s attempts to assert its influence around the world.

Since the outbreak of the global health crisis, China has begun operating various military aircraft from Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea, including an airborne early warning and control aircraft that has begun to use an airstrip on the reef as a “forward operating base” to conduct reconnaissance flights, military and State Department officials said.

While some of the operations might have been planned before the pandemic swept the globe, U.S. officials said American rivals like China are capitalizing on the Trump administration’s diverted attention and the strains on its military.

“Beijing is a net beneficiary of global attention diverted towards the pandemic rather than military activities in the South China Sea,” said Navy Capt. Mike Kafka, a spokesman for Indo-Pacific Command, Honolulu.

Officials at China’s embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment, but the country’s foreign ministry has said that it considers the island chains its territory and that its activities on its territory are lawful.

Chinese forces were accused earlier this month of sinking a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands, prompting a protest from the State Department.

“We call on [China] to remain focused on supporting international efforts to combat the global pandemic, and to stop exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other states to expand its unlawful claims in the South China Sea,” spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said.

China’s foreign ministry said the vessel was fishing illegally and, when confronted, rammed a Coast Guard ship, took on water and sank.

China’s latest moves come as a U.S. aircraft carrier in Asia, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is sidelined in Guam, with more than 600 crew members stricken by Covid-19. One crew member has died.

The Pentagon says it remains prepared despite 5,000 members of the Defense Department testing positive for the disease, with 19 deaths.

“Our readiness is still strong, and we are able to deter and defeat any challenges that may try to take advantage of these opportunities at this point of crisis,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week.

The warnings come as the U.S. also has faced a series of fresh tests elsewhere in the world, including from Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy last week made a series of “dangerous and harassing” moves near six American warships in the Persian Gulf, U.S. Navy officials said, the first such encounter since 2018.

Russia test-fired an antisatellite missile and twice buzzed American Navy planes over the Mediterranean Sea, military officials said. North Korea also test-fired suspected short-range cruise missiles—the first time it has used such missiles in nearly three years.

Mr. Trump sought to dispel any perception that he is preoccupied with the coronavirus by bringing the national security team to the White House earlier this month to take part in a daily coronavirus response briefing.

At that briefing, Robert O’Brien, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, said: “Let me be clear: It would be a mistake—a mistake with terrible consequences—for any adversary to attempt to do us harm during this health crisis, or ever, for that matter.”

In the Middle East, militant rocket strikes in Iraq have continued, while Taliban fighters continue to attack Afghan forces as they seek political leverage while the U.S. withdraws forces. Islamic State and al Qaeda militants around the world are urging their followers to strike America and its allies while their health-care systems and military forces are being strained.

“The pandemic can be an opportunity for U.S. adversaries to test American resolve,” said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, the London-based think tank.

She added Iran-backed militias and the Taliban are groups that may see the U.S. health crisis as a strain and will try to “score points against the U.S.”

An immediate concern for the Trump administration is in Iraq, where Iran-backed militants continue attacks on U.S. positions. On April 1, Mr. Trump publicly warned the groups against a “sneak attack” on Americans.

“If this happens, Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed!” he wrote on Twitter.

U.S. officials said their concerns were elevated by a recent military exercise in Iraq held by Kataib Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group the U.S. has blamed for a series of rocket attacks. The group said it held the exercise, dubbed “The Hunting of the Crows,” to prepare for a possible U.S. attack.

“Each country is trying to get advantage of the other’s weakness because of the coronavirus,” said an Iranian official close to the country’s security services.

Photo: President Trump brought his national security team to the White House earlier this month to take part in a daily coronavirus briefing.- PATRICK SEMANSKY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-trump-facing-virus-crisis-u-s-warns-rivals-not-to-seek-advantage-11587385652?shareToken=st5bd3c7d86eaf4e269b759ae895d48c2b&reflink=article

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