Taliban and al Qaeda Remain Linked, U.N. Study Says

A United Nations report issued Monday found that Afghanistan’s Taliban has maintained close ties with al Qaeda, holding at least six high-level meetings with leaders of the group during more than a year of talks with the United States.

The U.N. findings point to the difficulty faced by the Taliban in implementing its side of the agreement signed with the U.S. in February. Under the terms, the U.S. will withdraw all its troops within 14 months in return for a Taliban guarantee that Afghanistan will never again become a haven for terrorists.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the top U.S. envoy to Afghanistan said after the report’s release Monday that “we see progress, but they have a lot more to do.”

The U.N. report stated that al Qaeda’s senior leadership remains in Afghanistan along with hundreds of armed operatives. The report warned that fully implementing the agreement with the U.S. could cause the Taliban to split between pro- and anti-al Qaeda camps.

The Taliban share a close relationship with al Qaeda “based on friendship, a history of shared struggle, ideological sympathy and intermarriage,” the report said. It found the Taliban continue to provide a haven for al Qaeda members, estimating the size of its force between 400 and 600 armed operatives in Afghanistan.

U.S. defense officials are drawing up options for President Trump, including a full withdrawal of all U.S. troops as early as this autumn.

Mr. Khalilzad insisted the U.S.-Taliban deal remained in place and that any U.S. withdrawal would be based on conditions, as outlined in the deal negotiated over about 16 months of talks with the Taliban.

“The key thing is whether the conditions have been met, and I think that is the most important issue,” he said.

The U.N. report was produced by the world body’s sanctions monitoring team as part of its routine reporting on Afghanistan to the U.N. Security Council. The Taliban remain confident they can take power by force and could gain a significant battlefield advantage, if the U.S. abruptly withdraws, it said.

“The sudden or unexpected withdrawal of such support would endanger several provinces and leave them susceptible to falling to the Taliban,” the report said.

It noted there was also a risk that the Taliban will continue to find reasons to delay the full implementation of the deal with Washington as the U.S. continues to draw down its presence. As part of the agreement, the Taliban must reduce violence and start talks with the government and other Afghan groups.

The process has been held up over a prisoner swap, which is a condition for intra-Afghan talks to start. The Afghan government, which isn’t a signatory to the deal, has balked at freeing Taliban prisoners who could return to the battlefield and is calling for a long-term commitment by the Taliban to reduce violence.

The government and the Taliban also disagree over the number and process for releasing prisoners. The government said this week it had released 3,000 prisoners, but the Taliban have countered that 500 of them weren’t members of the group.

Mr. Khalilzad said the outlook for talks to start soon has improved since the Taliban agreed to a three-day cease-fire over the Muslim Eid holiday celebrated last week. Since then, he said, violence has remained relatively low.

“There are more prisoners to be released, and we hope violence will stay at very low levels,” he said.

Photo: Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar after signing an agreement with the United States during a ceremony in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Feb. 29, 2020. - GIUSEPPE CACACE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES