Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

North Korea’s Kim Warns of ‘Arduous March’ as Economic Problems Bite

Friday, April 9, 2021

Categories: ASCF News Economic Security

Comments: 0

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SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on officials to brace for a prolonged campaign to tackle the country’s worsening economic problems, comparing the crisis to the 1990s famine that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

Mr. Kim had previously warned of North Korea’s mounting challenges, which range from the impact of U.S. economic sanctions to summer floods. Over the course of the coronavirus pandemic, Pyongyang also shut down foreign tourism in a bid to stop the spread of Covid-19, and trade with China—which accounts for roughly nine-tenths of North Korea’s total annual trade—plunged 75% last year, according to Chinese trade data.

Concluding a conference of low-level members of the ruling Workers’ Party on Thursday, Mr. Kim instructed delegates to embark on what he called an “Arduous March” to relieve the growing economic problems, according to state media. For North Koreans, the term evokes the long period of starvation in the 1990s when the country’s highly-centralized economy struggled to cope with a series of natural disasters and the end of support from the former Soviet Union.

The upheaval led to the emergence of underground markets and unofficial cross-border trade with China as millions of ordinary North Koreans struggled to survive after frequent flooding devastated farmlands, prompting the U.S. and United Nations to provide food aid.

Mr. Kim’s remarks come as Washington is conducting a review of its North Korea policy following discussions with officials in Seoul and Tokyo.

Earlier this week, Mr. Kim told the conference that North Korea was facing its “worst-ever situation” and “unprecedentedly numerous challenges.”

North Korea analysts cautioned that his remarks don’t necessarily mean that there is a threat of mass starvation on the same scale that the country endured in the 1990s. Rather, it was a message from the regime that it sees no likelihood of immediate relief from its current slump.

“If Kim had an exit plan he would present a way forward but he’s referring to the past because he doesn’t see a solution for the current economic situation,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former South Korean national security official. “For the North Korean people, this is a devastating message.”

North Korea’s strict Covid-19 measures appear to have played a significant part in worsening an economy already weakened by the effect of U.S.-led sanctions imposed for its nuclear program.

The regime appears concerned about its ability to respond if the infection spreads widely, and recently withdrew from the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, citing the risk of its athletes contracting Covid 19.

The few remaining international aid workers left Pyongyang in the last few months as North Korea’s Covid restrictions took effect and officials also moved to curtail trade along its border with China, contributing to what could be a 10% slide in economic output last year, according to a recent estimate from Kim Byung-yeon, a professor of economics at Seoul National University. He used data from South Korea’s central bank going back to 1990 to calculate the scale of the slump. The largest previous decline was 7.1% in 1992.

Photo: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday warned of a difficult campaign ahead to relieve the country’s economic problems.
PHOTO: /ASSOCIATED PRESS

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-kim-warns-of-arduous-march-as-economic-problems-bite-11617975639

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