NATO Looks East—to Poland

It could be said that rather than scaring NATO to death, Russia’s attempt to conquer and erase Ukraine scared NATO back to life. In this transformation, the alliance is finally heeding Poland’s words of warning and following Poland’s lead.

Emerging Leader
In almost every way, Poland is pointing the way forward for its NATO allies.

Polish President Andrzej Duda is calling on NATO to increase its defense spending target for all members from the current 2 percent of GDP to 3 percent of GDP. “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine really demonstrated that [the] United States is and should remain the security leader,” Duda observes. “But other allies must take more responsibility for the security of the alliance as a whole. Two percent was good 10 years ago. Now 3 percent is required in response for the full-scale war launched by Russia right beyond NATO’s eastern border.”

As detailed in our November issue, Poland is leading by example—pouring 4 percent of GDP into defense this year and 5 percent of GDP into defense in 2025.

Equally important, Poland is using its military assets to promote the common defense. In addition to their robust and ready posture all across Poland, Polish combat units are deployed in Latvia and Romania to spearhead NATO’s deterrent battlegroups. Poland is contributing to the Sky Shield Initiative—an integrated air- and missile-defense effort enfolding most of Europe. Poland is partnering with Germany and the Netherlands to develop a military corridor that will enable NATO allies to rapidly move troops and equipment from Polish, German and Dutch ports to NATO’s eastern flank, as Defense News reports. And Poland and the Baltic states are coordinating border security.

Next, we come to Poland’s stalwart leadership on Ukraine.

After Russia’s lunge at Kiev, Poland opened its territory to U.S. F-15 fighter-bombers, AH-64 attack helicopters, Patriot air-defense batteries and thousands of American combat troops. Likewise, Poland welcomed hundreds of British troops and several British fighter-bombers.

Today, Poland is hosting NATO’s new joint training center, which will be capable of training “millions” of Ukrainian soldiers, according to Polish defense officials. Poland is among the top six nations sending military assistance to Ukraine—delivering some 320 tanks, hundreds of armored fighting vehicles, 100 missile systems, and dozens of artillery pieces and rocket-launch systems. Plus, Polish factories are repairing Ukrainian artillery and armor for reuse on the front lines.

But that’s only a partial picture of Poland’s contributions to the war effort. When the costs of caring for refugees are factored in, Poland is the third-highest contributing nation to Ukraine—behind only the U.S. and Germany. Poland has spent some $29 billion caring for and housing Ukrainian refugees.

In addition, 80 percent of Ukraine-bound military aid travels through Poland—something Poland vows to expand over the long haul, as detailed in the bilateral security agreement Poland and Ukraine recently unveiled. Under that agreement, Poland vows to continue “equipping and training Ukraine’s security and defense forces” and “to maintain its leading role in ensuring efficient supply of armaments and equipment to Ukraine” via the air-road-railway logistics hub in Rzeszów.

Warsaw also wants to use air-defense and missile-defense systems based inside Poland to cast a web of protection over a large swath of Ukrainian airspace. The Biden administration blocked that proposal, but the idea has bipartisan backing in Congress. And it’s possible the incoming Trump administration could reevaluate the plan.

Burden
Poland’s proactive commitment to European security is not new. In fact, Poland began shouldering its share of the NATO security burden even before it joined the alliance in 1999.

• Polish troops contributed to NATO’s stability operations in Bosnia in the mid-1990s.

• Just after officially joining NATO in 1999, Poland sent troops to Kosovo to assist in the NATO-led peacekeeping operation there.

• Some 33,000 Polish troops deployed to Afghanistan, standing shoulder to shoulder with other NATO allies until the bitter end at Kabul Airport.

• Poland was one of four nations to deploy troops for the initial invasion of Iraq. With commando units, bio-chem warfare units and mechanized infantry deployed in Iraq, Poland led the multination division in south-central Iraq. Poland also participated in NATO’s postwar training mission in Iraq.

• Polish F-16s carried out airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the Polish military continues to contribute to the Pentagon’s CENTCOM Coalition in the Middle East.

That brings us to the deepening U.S.-Polish alliance. In 2020, the U.S. announced plans to build a permanent base on Polish soil. And in 2023, Polish and U.S. personnel stood up U.S. Army Garrison-Poland, which is home to the U.S. Army’s V Corps Forward Command Headquarters. Other U.S. assets in Poland include an Armored Brigade Combat Team, a Combat Aviation Brigade, a Combat Sustainment Support Battalion, a hub for drone operations, and a new Aegis Ashore missile-defense base, which became operational in July.

Poland currently hosts 10,000 U.S. troops—a number which will likely grow as the U.S. Air Force shifts refueling operations from Germany to Poland. As Stars and Stripes reports, “In the coming months, 19 tanker units based stateside are slated to come to the west-central Polish town of Powidz.” Related, B-52 bombers deployed to Poland this year—in a dramatic signal aimed at Moscow.

Poland is also helping the U.S. on the intelligence front: This past summer and autumn, Poland’s security services played a central role in unraveling Russia’s failed terrorist attacks aimed at taking down civilian aircraft bound for Canada and the U.S.

Finally, Washington announced last month that Poland has been approved to join the Pentagon’s Wideband Global Satcom satellite network, which serves a small handful of U.S. allies in ensuring secure military command-and-control communications.

Experience
Poland understands from brutal firsthand experience what Churchill counseled at the outset of Cold War I: “I am convinced,” he said of the men who run the Kremlin, “that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness.”

If there’s any hope for containing Moscow and deterring Putin from expanding his war beyond Ukraine, the U.S. and the rest of NATO must heed Churchill’s words—and follow Poland’s example.