Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

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Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

Israel, U.A.E. Agree to Establish Formal Diplomatic Ties

Friday, August 14, 2020

Categories: ASCF News National Preparedness Bipartisianship

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Israel and the United Arab Emirates moved Thursday to establish formal diplomatic ties after Israel agreed to suspend a plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, in a dramatic U.S.-backed shift that signaled Israel’s warming ties with Gulf Arab states.

“The historic diplomatic breakthrough will advance peace in the Middle East region,” said a joint statement from Israel, the U.S. and the U.A.E. that praised “the courage of the United Arab Emirates and Israel to chart a new path that will unlock the great potential in the region.”

Israel has relations with Egypt and Jordan, but the U.A.E. is the first Gulf Arab state to announce a formal bond with Israel. The Gulf Arab states have historically held off doing so amid Israel’s long-running conflict with the Palestinians. In recent years, shared enmity with Iran has brought the sides closer together.

The U.A.E. move is expected to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia and others in the Gulf region to follow suit, but such a shift would be particularly sensitive for the Saudi monarchy, which has vied with Iran to be seen as the defender of the Palestinian cause.

The diplomatic breakthrough came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to suspend his drive to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. That campaign had drawn criticism from Arab states and Europe. They say any move to unilaterally claim areas Palestinians claim for a future state would permanently dash hopes for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu said President Trump asked him to temporarily suspend his promise to annex parts of the West Bank, but he remained committed to it in the future. “It’s not off the table, not as far as I am concerned,” he said.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden called the agreement “a historic step to bridge the deep divides of the Middle East.”

“The UAE’s offer to publicly recognize the State of Israel is a welcome, brave, and badly-needed act of statesmanship” that will help ensure Israel remains an integral part of the Middle East, the former vice president said in a statement, adding that deal came together after efforts by multiple administrations.

However, said Mr. Biden, “annexation would be a body blow to the cause of peace, which is why I oppose it now and would oppose it as president.”

Mr. Netanyahu said the deal between Israel and the U.A.E. demonstrated that his country would be welcome in the region—even without a formal peace accord with the Palestinians.

“This shows us the dramatic change that we made in the status of Israel in the Middle East,” Mr. Netanyahu said in Jerusalem on Thursday. “For decades Israel was always symbolized as an enemy…but today many countries see Israel as a strategic ally.”

Mr. Trump was joined in announcing the deal by his senior adviser Jared Kushner, U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman and Brian Hook, the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for Iran, who spearheaded the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic.

In a briefing later Thursday, Mr. Friedman said of how the agreement describes changes to Israel’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank: “The word ‘suspend’ was chosen carefully.”

He said annexation was “off the table now, but it’s not off the table permanently.”

The diplomatic accord reflects heightened concern among Israel and the Gulf Arab states about a potential confrontation with Iran. Israel has regularly conducted military strikes against Iranian positions inside Syria near its border. The U.S. and its allies have accused Tehran of staging attacks on oil tankers that ply the Persian Gulf, moving through the narrow Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s southern coast.

Mr. Trump said the Israeli and U.A.E.’s leaders would visit the White House for a signing ceremony in three weeks. The deal would include direct flights, embassies and other bilateral agreements.

Israeli and Emirati officials will also soon meet to sign a range of bilateral agreements. U.S. officials, including those who have viewed Iran as a source of instability in the Middle East, applauded the establishment of diplomatic ties between Israel and the U.A.E.

“Peace between the Arabs and the Israelis is Iran’s worst nightmare,” said Mr. Hook, the special envoy for Iran.

The U.A.E. has sought to frame a new relationship with Israel as a way to help calm a turbulent region. “It immediately stops annexation and the potential of violent escalation,” said U.A.E. Ambassador to the U.S. Youssef Otaiba. “It is a significant advance in Arab-Israeli relations that lowers tensions and creates new energy for positive change across the region.”

Kirsten Fontenrose, an analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank and previously a senior director for the Gulf at the National Security Council during the Trump administration, said the U.A.E. took a calculated risk that suspending Israel’s annexation drive would be enough to assuage critics of warmer ties with a historic enemy.

“The U.A.E. would’ve faced condemnation across the Muslim world as a traitor for recognizing Israel and it would’ve been a big recruitment narrative for extremists,” Ms. Fontenrose said. “But with the agreement from Israel that they won’t proceed with annexation, it turns U.A.E. into the Palestinians’ savior.”

However, Palestinian officials roundly condemned the agreement. Hanan Ashrawi, a member of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, an umbrella political organization representing the Palestinians, said the deal rewarded Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and exposed the Emiratis eagerness to strike a deal at their expense.

“The UAE has come out in the open on its secret dealings/normalization with Israel,” she tweeted. “May you never be sold out by your ‘friends.”

Signs of warming ties between Israel and the U.A.E. have been on display in recent years. Mr. Otaiba, the U.A.E. ambassador, went to the White House in January when the Trump administration released its Middle East peace blueprint, which was widely seen as largely favoring Israel. The U.A.E. sent two planes with coronavirus aid for the Palestinians to Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport in May and June, the first commercial flights between the two countries.

Mr. Netanyahu visited Oman in 2018 but the countries didn’t establish formal ties.

The Israel-U.A.E. pact will be called the Abraham accord, named after the biblical figure often referred to as the father of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Mr. Trump joked he wanted to call the deal the Donald J. Trump accord but that the news media wouldn’t understand.

Anwar Gargash, the U.A.E.’s minister of state for foreign affairs, told reporters that Washington’s involvement provided assurances of Israel’s commitment to suspending annexation, but said it was ultimately up to the Israelis and Palestinians to reach a final settlement.

“The U.A.E. today is really using its gravitas, its using its promise of a relationship to try really to unscrew a time bomb that is threatening a two-state solution,” Mr. Gargash said. “The region does need bold and imaginative steps.”

Mr. Gargash indicated the U.A.E. embassy wouldn’t be in Jerusalem, where Mr. Trump moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv in 2018.

Thursday’s announcement, while historic, was the culmination of steadily improving relations between Israel and the Arab Gulf states. That included a July 2019 public meeting in Washington between the foreign ministers of Bahrain and Israel.

Also last year, Mr. Hook convened secret meetings between Emirati and Israeli officials to discuss their shared concerns about Iran.

Then in June, Mr. Otaiba took the unprecedented step of publishing an op-ed on the front page of a leading Israeli newspaper that warned against Israel’s annexation plans but offered hope for warmer ties if Israel didn’t go ahead.

“We have conducted quiet diplomacy and sent very public signals to help shift the dynamics and promote the possible,” the ambassador wrote.

Mr. Netanyahu said other Arab states would soon follow the U.A.E. But a former senior U.S. official with experience in the region expressed skepticism that other Gulf states would soon follow suit.

“I don’t see Kuwait doing it. I don’t see Qatar doing it,” the former official said.

While some Gulf states have quietly engaged with Israel for years, their own domestic populations remain steadfast in their support for the Palestinians. That makes it difficult for governments to break from a long-held Arab position that normalization with Israel would only come after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

“It’s hard to imagine any other Arab country making the same move at this stage, ”said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf states Institute in Washington. “I just don’t think there’s anyone else really contemplating it.”

Photo: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke in Jerusalem Thursday about his nation’s accord with the U.A.E. - PHOTO: ABIR SULTAN/PRESS POOL

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