Islamic State Takes Fight to Iraqi Security Forces as Coalition’s Ties With Baghdad Fray
Islamic State has stepped up attacks in Iraq, seeking to exploit cracks in Baghdad’s alliance with the U.S.-led coalition and new security challenges resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.
Among a spate of attacks over the past week, militants have knocked out around 1,000 megawatts of the electricity supply by shooting at power lines in Iraq’s eastern province of Diyala. The attack resulted in more power cuts in Baghdad and the northern city of Kirkuk.
Last week, a suicide bomber blew himself up outside an intelligence directorate in Kirkuk, in a rare attack inside a city.
And in the deadliest attack for months, militants in the central Salahuddin province over the weekend ambushed a group of tribal fighters before dawn, killing 10 members of the security forces in an escalating war of attrition.
Though Islamic State remains severely weakened by a multiyear campaign, the attacks underline the growing threat posed by the group a year after U.S.-backed forces declared the end of its so-called caliphate.
The increase in attacks, confirmed by Iraqi officials and the U.S.-led coalition, comes after the U.S. pulled back in both Iraq and Syria, creating gaps for Islamic State to exploit.
The coronavirus pandemic has complicated efforts to maintain pressure on the group.
With security forces drawn into urban centers to enforce curfews and other measures designed to contain the virus, militants have had more freedom in thinly populated rural areas.
The risk of contagion has also prompted the coalition to suspend the training of Iraqi security forces, which is seen as critical to ensuring Islamic State doesn’t re-emerge in the long term.
Islamic State has urged its followers to take advantage of the situation. In an editorial titled “The Crusaders’ Worst Nightmare,” the group said now was the time to strike because its enemies are distracted by the virus and have restricted deployments abroad.The group typically ramps up its activities during the holy fasting month of Ramadan that is now under way. Warmer spring weather brings long grass that makes it easier for militants to maneuver and hide.
After months of political deadlock, Iraq got a new government Thursday led by Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former intelligence chief who worked closely with the U.S. during the war against Islamic State.
Mr. Kadhimi’s appointment gives Iraq a chance to repair its relationship with Washington, which broke down after the U.S. killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps foreign wing in a strike in Baghdad in January.
Amid a backlash against the U.S. military presence, the coalition paused joint operations with Iraqi security forces for a month, easing pressure on Islamic State, which has been trying to rebuild since its military defeat.
Facing increased threats by Iran-backed militias since last year, the coalition has devoted more attention to protecting itself at the expense of operations against Islamic State, and in recent months moved troops out of six smaller outposts to larger bases that can be more easily defended.
That has reduced surveillance in some areas and removed the advisory cells serving as a link with coalition air support and joint operations headquarters in Baghdad, according to Alex Mello, a security analyst at energy-consulting firm Horizon Client Access.
Col. Myles Caggins, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition, played down the impact of the smaller footprint and said coordination with Iraqi security forces remained strong. “We didn’t do much outside the wire at the bases anyway,” he said.
U.S. forces no longer have footholds in Kirkuk, Mosul, Qayara West and the Syrian border but are continuing to advise and assist Iraq forces from fewer bases.
In Syria, meanwhile, attacks by Islamic State sleeper cells have intensified since the U.S. partially withdrew troops last year and Turkey invaded the northeast of the country.
Despite the increased tempo of attacks by Islamic State, Col. Caggins said they remained relatively unsophisticated, consisting mainly of roadside bombings and hit-and-run raids with small arms. Mass casualty car bombs and suicide attacks that were once frequent are now rare.
“We look at capability,” Col. Caggins said. “If they were to take over a town and there were black flags flying over it that would be quite alarming to us, but they can’t hold physical terrain and the Iraqi security forces continue to take the offensive to them.”
In recent days, Iraqi security forces have ramped up operations against Islamic State, including a campaign dubbed “Lions of the Desert” near the country’s western border with Syria this week. On Monday, they announced killing five militants near the town of Haditha and seized their vehicle containing 80 homemade bombs. The same day, security forces said they had uncovered a stash of 70 improvised bombs in the northwestern area of Badush and destroyed five tunnels used by Islamic State there.
In its current state, security analysts say Islamic State resembles 2012, when its insurgency began to gather steam after U.S. troops withdrew from the country.
The militants face a major barrier to regaining the strength that peaked with their occupation of a third of Iraq and swaths of Syria in 2014. After subjecting millions to its brutal rule, the overwhelming majority of the population remains hostile to Islamic State. Most are willing to cooperate with security forces against the militants, making it harder for them to gain a foothold in urban areas.
But the continuing challenges Iraq faces may eventually erode those advantages. Any renewal of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have eased from a peak in the wake of Maj. Gen. Soleimani’s killing, could jeopardize Mr. Kadhimi’s chances of mending ties with Washington.
A deepening economic crisis triggered by a plunge in oil prices may fuel domestic unrest, detracting from the fight against Islamic State.
Oil revenues account for more than 90% of Baghdad’s revenue. An Iraqi government official said the crisis could undermine the government’s ability to pay security forces’ salaries and purchase technological equipment needed to fight Islamic State.
In Diyala province, where Islamic State has been particularly active, a police officer said Baghdad hadn’t responded to requests to replace thermal cameras that detect Islamic State movements at night and help security forces track them down. The militants had destroyed them.
The officer said local residents had donated money for a new camera to be bought. The militants destroyed that one, too.
Photo: An Iraqi fighter with the Hashed al-Shaabi inspected the site of an Islamic State attack in Mukaishefah on May 3. - PHOTO: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
