General Who Led Myanmar Coup Poses Challenges for West

On the fifth day after Myanmar’s military chief seized power in a coup, his new foreign minister invited the diplomatic corps for a briefing via Zoom, the videoconferencing app. For Western officials, this presented a problem: Would attendance signal that they were in any way recognizing Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s rule?

A flurry of discussions followed. In the end, many, including the U.S., sent deputies rather than ambassadors. Some kept their cameras off. Others expressed condemnation of the takeover, according to four diplomats with knowledge of the meeting.

“It was a statement—not to be there in any way to give the impression that this was OK, or that we were OK with the coup,” one of the diplomats said. “On the other hand, we want to keep diplomatic channels open.”

The episode captures the dilemma many in the international community face over if and how to engage with the regime of Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who last week ended Myanmar’s decadelong transition to democracy. Even before he wrested absolute control, Washington had slapped sanctions on him over alleged human-rights abuses, and his army’s brutal campaigns became the subject of a continuing genocide case at the U.N.’s top court.

Since the Feb. 1 coup, a number of foreign governments have tried to get him to back down. On Wednesday, President Biden said the U.S. would impose fresh sanctions against the military leadership. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke this week with officials from India and Japan, who have influence in the country, to apply pressure. New Zealand suspended all ties and declared the regime illegitimate.

Privately, Western officials aren’t optimistic. The new military regime has twice ordered internet blackouts, once at gunpoint. The regime has made ominous warnings against peaceful protests. Police have used gunshots and water cannons to disperse crowds.

“People have been looking to see if there’s an off-ramp, that maybe the military realized this wasn’t the best idea and people can help them get back down,” said Derek Mitchell, president of the National Democratic Institute who was the U.S. ambassador to Myanmar from 2012 to 2016. “But there are signs that’s not what they’re doing; they’re digging in.”

Tensions were building much before the coup. Since national elections in November delivered civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi an overwhelming majority, the military and its proxy party had complained of voter fraud. Leading up to a new parliament session in February, the generals made several demands. Those included postponing parliament; giving the army a role in reviewing vote irregularities; and convening a defense council that would boost the military’s power, according to diplomats with knowledge of the situation.

Ms. Suu Kyi said no, they said.

She “was quite firm and inflexible in responding to any of these requests,” one of them said. “Min Aung Hlaing was genuinely ticked off that he wasn’t taken seriously.”

Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was months away from mandatory retirement. His term had already been extended by five years, and some analysts believe he aspired to remain in some position of power. They disagree about why—whether he was driven by personal ambition, or was acting to defend the military’s interests, or wanted greater insurance against international prosecution for alleged military atrocities.

On Feb. 1, Ms. Suu Ki and other senior officials were detained in a predawn raid. She remains under house arrest at her residence in the capital.

All power was concentrated in Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who said quickly that elections would be held. But many diplomats are bracing for the possibility that he may try to legitimize his rule by designing an unfair voting process. Some worry Myanmar might follow the lead of neighboring Thailand, where the military staged a coup in 2014, then made legal revisions that opponents say gave the military-backed party there an edge in elections.

The military didn’t respond to a request for comment and Gen. Min Aung Hlaing couldn’t be reached.

Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, now 64 years old, joined the Defense Services Academy in 1974, launching his military career, according to a biography compiled by the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies, a Myanmar think tank. He earned accolades within the army for overseeing offensives in eastern Myanmar, where the armed forces are embroiled in a civil war with ethnic minorities fighting for greater autonomy.

In 2011, he was named commander in chief. At the time, after years of crippling Western sanctions imposed because of military rule, the generals were turning toward what they called a “discipline-flourishing democracy.” They had adopted a new constitution that allowed a greater civilian role but embedded the army in politics.

When he first assumed the top job, he came off as eager to prove himself amid doubts by other senior officers who thought themselves worthy of the position, diplomats who have interacted with him said. He was invited on goodwill visits to South Korea, Japan, Austria, Germany and Russia, where he met with army counterparts and toured military history museums. Former diplomats said that, at least in the beginning, he didn’t seem impervious to influence.

Eventually, he grew a confidence that made some diplomats nervous. They say he is not a man of compromise and is infused with a belief that he is the nation’s rightful leader.

In 2017, his security forces conducted brutal operations that forced more than 740,000 minority Rohingya Muslims to flee across the border to Bangladesh. He was banned from Facebook, and U.N. investigators determined he should be investigated for genocide.

Laetitia van den Assum, a former Dutch ambassador who served on a commission to address the Rohingya crisis, described her encounters with him as “among the most unpleasant of my entire diplomatic career.” In meetings between the military leader and the commission’s chairman, late Nobel Peace Prize laureate Kofi Annan, she said, he wore a wry smile and launched into long monologues that indicated his distaste for dialogue.

As the 2020 elections approached, diplomats, Myanmar officials and analysts say the military overestimated its support and was blindsided by Ms. Suu Kyi’s landslide victory. After the results, they alleged fraud and, last week, launched a coup.

Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has sought a veneer of legitimacy, saying in a televised speech that he acted in accordance with the constitution after the military’s concerns about voter lists weren’t addressed. The country’s foreign policy would remain unchanged, he said.

“My biggest worry is that they’ll get people used to this, and that over time people will accommodate them,” said Mr. Mitchell, the former U.S. ambassador.

Photo: Myanmar Gen. Min Aung Hlaing spoke to the nation days after grabbing power. /ASSOCIATED PRESS

Link: Myanmar Coup Poses Diplomatic Challenge for World Leaders - WSJ