Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

Defense Department shakeup must not derail homeland missile defense priorities

Friday, October 1, 2021

Categories: ASCF News Emerging Threats

Comments: 0

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/09/28/defense-department-shakeup-must-not-derail-homeland-missile-defense-priorities/

The 'lead' Ground-based Interceptor is launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., March 25, 2019, in the first-ever salvo engagement test of a threat-representative ICBM target. (Photo courtesy of Missile Defense Agency)

News broke last week that as part of a reorganization within the Department of Defense, the position of deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy was eliminated. The timing of the move is curious.

That’s because currently underway in Washington, DC, is a singularly critical governmental review of the United States’ ability to protect its territory and people from attack by a wide array of missiles. Dubbed the Missile Defense Review, this multi-faceted analysis is essentially a periodic review of the various missile threats to the nation, identification of necessary missile defense counter-capabilities, and then the development of a detailed plan to acquire the required systems to defeat those threats.

The last review was completed in 2017 so the current effort is as timely as it is important. Changes in the threat environment and the emergence of new technology and associated systems require the Defense Department to reevaluate and update its planning. And things have changed dramatically.

Missile Defense Reviews historically have focused on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles launched from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran. However, the threat environment in recent years has exploded with adversary capabilities. These include longer-range rocket boosters and highly sophisticated reentry vehicles on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, very long range, highly accurate stealth cruise missiles, and very recently, Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles, against which we currently have no defense.

To address the “whole threat space” challenge Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Adm. Jon Hill has outlined, this Missile Defense Review must conduct a clear-headed, dispassionate, holistic analysis of all the current and emerging threats we face. The review must also identify those current technologies and programs of record available to defeat those threats and determine what additional technologies and capabilities are necessary to close any current or near-term gaps in our defenses.

One of those necessary additional capabilities that both the Defense Department and Missile Defense Agency have already clearly articulated is the Next Generation Interceptor program, a substantial upgrade to the country’s ballistic missile defense, and one that enjoys significant support both within the Defense Department and on the Hill.

United States Northern Command commander Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck has stated the Next Generation Interceptor “will continue to keep us on a successful path to maintain capacity to address the threat and also the capability. As [adversaries] develop capabilities such as decoys or balloons that may be challenging the system, the Next Generation Interceptor will give us that capability. I’m concerned that we must develop it and field it on time.”

Presumably to keep the program on budget, on time, and to limit technical risk, the House Armed Services Committee this month rightly encouraged the Defense Department to maintain competition for the program through, at a minimum, the critical design reviews and to uphold “fly before you buy” principles. These firm and necessary statements indicate near unanimity within the government regarding not just homeland missile defense, but the wider Missile Defense Review. Admiral Hill has declared that this year’s review “will be firmly based on defending against emerging threats,” as well it should be.

However, an emerging threat that must be squarely upon Admiral Hill’s radar is that of purely partisan, preconceived policy agendas, that have no basis in reality. This maneuvering simply serves to assuage one political constituency or adhere to one political catechism, attempting to determine the outcome of the review. It is, therefore, a potentially unwelcome development that the deputy assistant secretary of defense previously charged with leading the Missile Defense Review finds her position eliminated. While the motivation for such a reorganization remains unclear, one must hope that the Biden Administration is installing an appointee to manage the Missile Defense Review who fully understands the criticality of the homeland defense mission.

Some have suggested that missile defense for the nation be traded away to Russia or China in exchange for something, real or imagined. The defense of the American homeland is not a bargaining chip to be wagered in negotiations with our strategic adversaries. It is, instead, a sacred duty to the American people, entrusted to the federal government by our constitution.

There is currently widespread bipartisan support within the congress for a purposeful and effective Missile Defense Review. The appropriate congressional oversight committees should, therefore, ensure that partisan politics do not derail the review from accomplishing its mission and guarantee the final document delivers a fact-based and threat-based conclusion, free of long-held political bias.

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