Baltic nations brace for US troop withdrawal as Russia waits and watches

As President Trump weighs a decision to withdraw nearly one-third of America’s troops from Germany, the Baltic states closest to Russian aggression quietly hope American troops do not leave the European theater.

“This is very much a win for Russian security,” Tony Lawrence of the International Centre for Defense and Security told the Washington Examiner by phone from Estonia on Tuesday, discussing reports that Trump had called for a withdrawal of 9,500 U.S. troops from bases in Germany by September.

“Russia would like to see the Baltic Sea as its own, without NATO forces operating here,” he said.

While the U.S. commitment to European security hangs in the balance, 28 ships, 28 aircraft, and 3,000 personnel from 19 NATO and partner countries were participating in the Baltic Operations, or BALTOPS 2020, exercise in one of NATO’s most challenging maritime environments to defend.

Conducted exclusively at sea this year to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the nations practiced interoperability for anti-submarine, anti-mine, and other exercises in the confined, littoral environment of the Baltic Sea, where shallow depths inhibit sensors and archipelagos and floating winter ice favor adversaries.

“The important thing is the deterrence message that it sends,” Lawrence said of the 10-day exercise. “All three Baltic states are participating in BALTOPS, and the navies certainly take it seriously.”

The exercises that kicked off Monday did not openly claim to be training to counter a Russian act of aggression. But the show of force is a strong reassurance for the nations that border Russia ever since Crimea was invaded in 2014.

“BALTOPS is an ongoing, cooperative training effort. It’s in its 49th iteration,” said U.S. Vice Adm. Lisa Franchetti, commander of the U.S. 6th Fleet, on a press call Monday. “We always, as part of the NATO alliance, are working together to ensure that we can deter any type of malign activity and be ready to defend.”

The capacity to respond to Russian aggression with fewer troops and open divisions with European allies, as has been reported between Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has worried some security experts in the region.

Allies have also been left in the dark.

“There have been no bilateral consultations with the Pentagon's representatives on these issues,” the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner.

"We also hope that not all of the military personnel relocated from Germany will leave Europe,” the statement added.

The Warsaw Polish Institute of International Affairs, whose director, Slawomir Debski, is approved by the prime minister, similarly seemed to respond cautiously, pending a public announcement from the White House.

“All the decisions regarding the Euro-Atlantic security should be assessed through the prism of how they contribute to our collective security,” he told the Washington Examiner Monday.

Responding to Monday comments by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who downplayed unofficial reports about the withdrawal, Debski added: “The question of U.S. troops withdrawal is not discussed in NATO, and it is not official. So, it is better to wait [for] more in-depth assessments.”

Nowhere to go

Lawrence, whose think tank is largely funded by the Estonian ministries of defense and foreign affairs, views the presence of 34,500 American troops in Germany as essential to NATO deterrence of Russia. Simply relocating them to other bases in Europe is not logistically possible.

“American troops in Germany are an important aspect of NATO deterrence of Russia. That’s the prime security concern in this region,” he said.

The American troop presence in Europe shortens the reaction time to respond to a threat against allies on the European continent. A stable and secure Europe is also in the best interest of the United States, he added.

Moving nearly 10,000 troops from long-established bases in Germany requires long-term planning.

“It would be logistically difficult for the Baltic states to absorb any significant number of forces due to lack of infrastructure, lack of training facilities,” he said.

Likewise, Poland, where initial media reports indicated the troops would relocate, does not have the infrastructure.

“There is a lot of uncertainty and lack of information on President's Trump decision,” Justyna Gotkowska, regional security program coordinator at the Warsaw Centre for Eastern Studies, told the Washington Examiner Tuesday. “One needs time to prepare such a relocation.”

A memo signed between Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda last year called for 1,000 more U.S. troops to base in Poland, part of a growing defense cooperation effort that Warsaw is still laying the groundwork for.

Even some $20 billion in infrastructure investments funded by the U.S. since 2015 under the European Deterrence Initiative to upgrade the capacity and preposition of equipment of eastern flank NATO partners will not be enough to absorb the U.S. troops.

“EDI did not build the infrastructure that would support bringing in Americans into this region,” said Lawrence. “It takes a while to build these things up.”

On Tuesday, the Department of Defense again directed inquiries from the Washington Examiner about the potential troop movement to the National Security Council.

The NSC stood by a Monday comment that no announcements have been made.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany also underscored Monday that there were no announcements at this time.

“The president's continually reassessing the best posture for the United States's military forces and our presence overseas,” she said. “We remain committed to working with our strong allies.”

Gotkowska said withdrawing 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany back to the U.S. would be a blow to NATO’s defense and deterrence posture in Europe.

“However, if a bigger part of these troops is moved to other European countries, especially on the eastern flank, this might not have grave consequences,” she said.

The type of troops also matters, with combat units only representing about one-quarter of those stationed in Germany.

“The key question is what kind of reductions will be made and whether some of the US troops will be moved to other European countries,” she said.

But if there is no way to house all the troops in other countries, and some had to return home, such a move would benefit Russia.

“This might send mixed signals to Russia that will try to use divisions between European allies on this issue and negative perception of such a US move in Western Europe,” she said.

Meanwhile, Lawrence said the eruption of the troop movement controversy and its potential security implications are a boon for Vladimir Putin.

“Russia would be delighted to see American forces withdraw from Germany,” he said. “It’s a gift to Putin.”

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