By Colonel (Ret.) James “Pete” McIllwain

Primary Objective of RISING LION?

What was the real objective of Israel’s so-called “12-Day War” or Operation “RISING LION?” Was it the overwhelming success, as claimed by both Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump?

In a post-operational press briefing on July 3rd, the Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, General Eyal Zamir, said that planning for the attack on Iran began in February, four months before the first wave of Israeli fighters swooped in on June 13^th. He said that Israel had had “no choice” not to attack, as Israeli Intelligence had obtained “incontrovertible information” that Iran had refined over 140 kilos of weapons-grade U-235. This amount of U-235 is sufficient for Iran to make between one and ten nuclear weapons of a size deliverable on Iran’s ballistic missiles. Israeli Intelligence estimated Iran could be “only weeks” from making the weapons. Furthermore, General Zamir claimed that this information and planning for the attack had been shared with “the Americans” throughout.

Netanyahu has been claiming the exact same thing about Iran being just days or weeks or mere months from fabricating a weapon for years if not decades. On July 3^rd, Sima Shine, a now retired former Chief of Analysis at Mossad commented that “this attack was the culmination of years of careful work” by Mossad. But the question is whether the primary objective was just the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability, or was it something larger, something for which the Iranian nuclear weapons program was, for the most part, a screen, making the obscured real objective more palatable to the public at home and abroad.

Were the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites effective?

Here is what Israeli Middle East war correspondent Elijah Magnier noted on July 8^th:

— Israel’s attack and the “12-day War” that followed were aiming to change the ruling system and its government, and that effort has failed.

— The CIA and Mossad never actually intend to destroy Iran’s nuclear or missile programs because they know they can’t. Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, revealed he visited nuclear facilities 800 meters underground. No bomb in the U.S. arsenal can reach that depth — not even the GBU-57 bunker buster used by B-2 bombers.

— The Pentagon wouldn’t bomb Esfahan because it knew the attack would fail. The damage to Fordow, located at a depth of 100 meters, is uncertain, and the U.S. knew it. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was designed with this in mind.

–Centrifuges are not vertically stacked like dominoes. They’re distributed, hardened, and concealed. Enriched uranium has been relocated across multiple undisclosed sites. After the strikes, the West isn’t sure what was damaged and what survived.

–But the military bombing campaign was only a small part of the plan. For twelve days, the U.S. and Israel launched a full-spectrum regime-change operation; Intelligence networks, spies and collaborators, embedded over decades – dormant cells, saboteurs, assassins, drone teams — were activated. Assassination plots, confusion campaigns, and targeted destabilization efforts were unleashed across Iran. This wasn’t covert — it was orchestrated in plain view.

–Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hosted the Iranian crown prince, while media platforms in London and Washington amplified opposition figures.

— With senior military, intelligence, and IRGC leadership assassinated and the Ayatollah Khamenei incommunicado and hiding in a secret bunker, Israel began a coordinated information war that was intended to cause panic, fracture public trust, deepen unrest, and break the system from within. (End quote from Elijah Magnier’s post on “X.”)

Main players in this “regime change” operation?

— The first is the Iranian Mujahideen-e Khalq or MEK, which has been fighting against the Shia Theocracy in Iran since the Ayatollahs overthrew the Shah in 1979. Initially, the MEK had some 10,000 fighters in several camps in Iraq and conducted cross-border operations into Iran.

— After 2016 the MEK’s covert Military and Intelligence Wings were expelled from Iraq and reestablished in Albania with the assistance of the British Secret Intelligence Service (aka MI-6) and the Mossad. The overt political arm, known as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (or NCRI) established itself in Paris. Iranian IRGC has attempted to assassinate the NCRI’s leaders, Miryam Rajavi and her husband Massoud, several times over the years.

–The MEK was initially designated as an international terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, but was removed from the list in 2012, reportedly at the behest of the CIA. After the MEK relocated to Albania in 2016 and established operational bases opposite Iran’s northern border in Azerbaijan, the MEK became something of an intelligence operation. The MEK is wholly owned by the Mossad, likely with significant funding from the CIA through the Mossad.

–The second participating agents in the regime change operation were certain Kurdish tribal groups in Kurdistan, and Hemada Provinces in Iran’s north and west, and supported by and through the CIA in the Kurdish area of Iraq. There are approximately 48 different Kurdish tribes in Iran, and religious practices vary from one tribal and family group to another. These include Shia Islam, Judaism, and the Bahá’í Faith (which, coincidentally, has its headquarters in Haifa, Israel).

–The third is the so-called Iranian Transitional Government (ITG), which is a group of Iranian exiles, most of whom reside in the U.S. and are seeking a royal restoration. The ITG was formally established in February 2025 under the leadership of the 65-year-old Iranian Crown Prince Reza Palavi. He resides in McLean, Virginia – ironically, very close to CIA Headquarters.

— Following the initiation of RISING LION, Palavi traveled to London, where he made several speeches calling for Iranians to arise, and he appeared on major news media, such as U.S. Fox News and the BBC. In one such interview, Palavi claimed the ITG was in communication via “secure communications” with 20,000 followers inside Iran

–Palavi further stated to European news media that the Israeli attacks in Iran “have created tremendous opportunities for the Iranian People to topple a weakened and unpopular terrorism sponsoring government.”  However, the reality seems to be that Palavi, essentially, played well to audiences who did not matter, but the message fell flat inside Iran. Palavi left Iran as a young child 46 years ago and is virtually unknown by the man on the street in today’s Iran.

–On June 17^th (Day 5 of the operation) President Trump appears, either wittingly or unwittingly, to have assisted the regime change effort by publicly announcing (true or not) that he (and by extension the Israelis) knew exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding,,, opining that he was an “easy target”, but that Trump did not want Khamenei killed “for now.” He went on to suggest that all of Tehran needs to evacuate immediately. If the intent was to induce panic, it did not work because by that time, the Iranians had cut most communications as a counterintelligence measure.

Regime Change Game a Failure.

If the chief objective of Operation RISING LION was indeed regime change, it was a failure. This appeared to be so because the Iranians quickly recognized what was happening and quickly employed effective countermeasures, such as:

— Almost immediately cutting internet and social media throughout Iran to forestall propaganda and “misinformation” coming from abroad.

–By 18 June, the Iranian political establishment had sufficiently recovered to organize mass demonstrations against Israel and America and calls for Persian Shias to unite in the face of foreign attacks (very much of an us-versus-them in a religious and cultural context).

–Despite the assassination of several key senior leaders in the first two days of the Israeli attack, by about 20 June the IRGC leadership had largely reconstituted. They began a major counterintelligence-based counter-offensive starting in Tehran and proceeding outwards, which was focused primarily on known or suspected MEK members or agents. Reportedly, many hundreds were summarily executed, and the entire MEK structure inside Iran may have been destroyed as a result.

–The IRGC also began a similar purge against certain Kurdish clans in the north and west. More were being killed in Kurdish areas than in the purge of the MEK. One source said in a satellite phone call on 5 July, “The repression has become terrifying. If you are on a list because you have mocked the regime or are seen as pro-Israeli in any way, you will disappear.”

–Finally, to top it off, on 5 July, Ayatollah Khamenei emerged from his hiding place to attend an Ashura mourning ceremony at the Imam Khomeini Mosque in Central Tehran, seemingly sending a message to all Iranians that the Ayatollahs were still very much in control.

What is next?

It’s not a Trump-imposed “Peace” in the Middle East. It is a cease-fire only, while both Israel and Iran address the massive battle damage that both have suffered so far, and replenish their depleted stocks of ammunition. Perhaps Thomas Jefferson characterized the current situation instead when he wrote, “Peace is that Glorious moment in history of blessed quiet when everybody stands around reloading.”